Switzerland has initiated negotiations between Huthis (Shiite rebels) and Yemen government to abate civil war in the region and make Sunnite countries turn their attention towards conflict with ISIS.
Saudi Arabia supports Yemen government and uses ground troops to fight with Huthis. Yesterday, Huthis took on military action against Saudis killing more than 150 in an attack. Thus, the negotiations have almost interrupted. Saudis created a Muslim union in return and moved their troops to the northern borders of Yemen. Northern territories are traditionally (for more than 1500 years) inhabited by Huthis.
This territory consists of hills and mountains. And no matter how many troops one prepares, military actions are complicated by the relief of the terrain. Historically, this part of Yemen has never been conquered before. Given such a difficulty, Yemen government agreed to continue with negotiations.
Negotians Conditions and Prospects
Saudi and Yemen government conditions (part of UN resolution) include surrendering weapons and leaving the capital (Sana’a city) for Huthis. But the problem is that by local tradition each male adult has to possess at least one gun. And another problem is that Sana’a population consists mainly of Huthis – they’ve got nowhere to go and don’t think that they have to. The above means, that one party is not going to abide the terms and the other will insist on that. Icejam.
The issue is also complicated by deep confidence of Huthis in their own forces. They are convinced that they can defeat just anybody on their territory creating guerilla warfare. This makes them feel that combative mood right now. But Saudis are not going to accept the compromise as well for it would mean a geopolitical defeat for them.
It means that negotiations will not produce any good result.
Caliphate in the Southern Yemen
Chances are that the war in Yemen will be escalated. The consequences could be terrible. Even right now, the humanitarian catastrophe is not less the one in Syria or even greater by scale. But new war chain will result in mass famine, epidemics, and refugees fleeing abroad. Huthis have also been the main counterbalance for the Islamic State which is on the rise at the South of Yemen.
If this new Muslim coalition makes all Huthis guerrillas in the mountains of Yemen then Sunnites (radical ones – IS core and basis) will receive a good opportunity to declare Caliphate in the Southern part of Yemen.